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Swing State Polls: Tie Goes To Trump?

Swing State Polls: Tie Goes To Trump?

Your unbiased daily news brief

James Kratch
October 11, 2024

Good Friday morning. Is the nearest city to you one of America's safest? Have a great weekend!

In Today’s Brief

Ethel Kennedy: Dies at 96
Cameroon: Disappearing leader
Clinton: On the trail
Inflation: New data
Nadal: Announces retirement

... and more

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Top Tips

1) The magnificent seven

Both presidential candidates can find silver linings in a new batch of battleground state polls.

The news: Former President Donald Trump has a slight lead in four of the seven swing states, according to surveys by The Hill and Emerson College, while Vice President Kamala Harris leads in one and the candidates are tied in two. Trump is up in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania by 1-2 points. Harris leads in Nevada by a point. And they are tied in Michigan and Wisconsin. Neither candidate is at 50% or higher in any state.
The analysis: Trump would likely win the election if the actual results reflect these polls. Pennsylvania's all-important 19 electoral votes would put him over the 270 vote threshold needed to win the Electoral College, regardless of whether Harris bests him in Michigan and Wisconsin. The vice president needs to hold the Midwest states and flip either Georgia or North Carolina if Trump wins Pennsylvania.
Take note: The Hill and Emerson also polled the Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and the gubernatorial race in North Carolina. The Democratic candidate leads in all six of those surveys, and four of the candidates — incumbents Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen, Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallegos and North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein — are at 50%. Gallego leads controversial Republican candidate Kari Lake by seven points and Stein has a whopping 16-point lead on scandal-plagued Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Could Harris ride reverse coattails down the stretch?

2) 'Distress call'

A new study by the World Wildlife Fund is sparking concerns.

The news: Global wildlife populations have decreased by almost 75% in size in a half-century, according to the WWF report. The 2024 Living Planet Report monitored roughly 5.5K species of amphibians, birds, fish, mammals and reptiles from 1970 to 2020.
Go deeper: Freshwater populations saw the biggest declines, dropping by 85%. Terrestrial populations were down 69% and marine populations fell 56%. The Caribbean and Latin America saw staggering 95% overall drops.
The reaction: "Nature is issuing a distress call. The linked crises of nature loss and climate change are pushing wildlife and ecosystems beyond their limits," said WWF International Director General Dr. Kirsten Schuijt. The study warned of a "global tipping point," with Schuijt adding that "the decisions made and action taken over the next five years will be crucial for the future of life on Earth."

3) Historic penalty

TD Bank just got hammered by the Department of Justice.

What happened: The Canadian bank agreed to pay over $3B in fines yesterday after pleading guilty to multiple criminal charges, including conspiracy to violate the Bank Secrecy Act and commit money laundering. It is the biggest fine of its kind ever.
The details: Prosecutors said TD Bank allowed drug cartels and other criminals to transfer hundreds of millions in illegal funds with ease. The bank had inadequate safeguards and allowed transactions to continue even after internal flagging occurred.
Next steps: TD Bank will also face government-mandated growth caps as part of the settlement, as well as federal compliance monitoring. The bank, the 10th-largest in the U.S. by total assets, said it has already hired over 700 news staff members to address the issues.

Quick Tips

U.S. News

Ethel Kennedy died at 96 following a recent stroke. The late Robert F. Kennedy's widow and a mother of 11, she was an advocate for gun control and human rights and received the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2015 (More)
Hurricane Milton has killed at least 14 people in Florida after making landfall as a Category 3 storm before moving through the state at Category 1. More casualties are anticipated; about 3M people were without power as of last night (More)
Philadelphia police discovered a bomb-making laboratory and IEDs after responding to a house fire in the city. A man was arrested and is being held on $1M bail after Homeland Security discovered roughly 50 pounds of explosives in the home (More)

World News

Cameroon's 91-year-old president has not been seen publicly in weeks, but his government insists he is in good health. Paul Biya, who has been in power since 1982, did not make recent scheduled trips to the United Nations General Assembly and a summit in France (More)
The European Union has pushed back new border check rules. The fingerprint-and-facial scan systems for all non-EU citizens will now go online on Nov. 10 after several member nations, France, Germany and the Netherlands said they were not ready (More)
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te vowed to resist Chinese "annexation or encroachment" and said China has no right to represent his country. The comments drew condemnation from Beijing; Lai said he wants to continue dialogue with China (More)

Campaign News

Former President Bill Clinton will make campaign appearances to support Vice President Harris. He is expected to begin hitting the trail this weekend and make a targeted push in battleground states; former President Barack Obama will also be on the road leading into Election Day (More)
Democrats have outspent Republicans by $300M on television ads since Harris ascended atop the ticket. The party also has a decided spend advantage in future ad buys (More)
Former NFL star Marshawn Lynch suggested he may run for mayor in Oakland, California. Current Mayor Sheng Thao faces a recall threat after the FBI raided her home; California Gov. Gavin Newsom indicated he would support the ex-Cal and Raiders running back (More)

Business & Markets

Major indexes closed lower yesterday. September's consumer price index delivered slightly higher inflation numbers than anticipated at 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY (Dow -0.14%, Nasdaq -0.05%, S&P 500 -0.21%).
Sanofi will sell its consumer health unit to a private equity firm as it looks to focus on new drug development. Clayton Dubilier & Rice is expected to pay $16.4B for the division (More)
Teva Pharmaceuticals will pay a $450M fine to settle two cases with the DOJ. The Tel Aviv-based company faced allegations of price-fixing and using charities to pay kickbacks to boost sales of a multiple sclerosis drug (More)

Entertainment & Sports

Tennis great Rafael Nadal announced his retirement. The 38-year-old Spaniard won 22 major tournament titles, the second-most in history, and dominated the clay court French Open, winning that event 14 times; the 2008 Olympic champion will compete for the final time at next month's Davis Cup finals (More)
Sean "Diddy" Combs' federal sex trafficking trial will start next May in New York. Prosecutors said the hip-hop mogul could face superseding indictments; his attorneys accused the government of leaking evidence to taint the prospective jury pool (More)
The Tampa Bay Rays' stadium was significantly damaged by Hurricane Milton. The storm ripped Tropicana Field's roof to shreds; the Major League club said it may take weeks to assess the building's overall condition; it was supposed to be a temporary shelter for first responders (More)

Quick Hitters

Nice Gesture: A medical emergency forced a United Airlines flight from San Francisco to Houston to land in Albuquerque, a diversion that meant a seven-hour delay. So the pilot bought pizza for the 150 passengers on board.
History Lesson: A Minnesota man completed the first confirmed circumnavigation of the world by foot 50 years ago. It was a wild, and tragic, walk.
Go Deep: Ranked-choice voting has begun to spread rapidly in the U.S. Could the so-called instant runoff system be the secret to healing American politics?
Take Note: Your workout today could help you solve a problem next week. Researchers in Finland recently found that brain activity does not immediately respond to activities like exercise, but rather gradually evolves over days and even weeks following the action.
Food Hack: The smallest adjustments can make a world of difference in the kitchen. Here are some tips that will make you a better cook.

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