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Where Presidential Race Stands With 2 Months To Go

Where Presidential Race Stands With 2 Months To Go

Your unbiased daily news brief

James Kratch
September 03, 2024

Good Tuesday morning! Capri Sun is reportedly about to start offering traditional bottles in addition to its iconic juice pouches. That kind of defeats the purpose, no? Have a great day!

In Today’s Brief

Buffalo: City Hall mayhem
Turkey: U.S. soldiers attacked
Walz: Motorcade accident
Volkswagen: ‘Extremely tense’ situation
Hot dogs: New world record

... and more

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Top Tips

1) Stretch run

Labor Day is in the rearview mirror. Election Day is now two months away.

State of the race: Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 2-4 points in most national polls. But Trump still fares well in several critical battleground states that will help decide the Electoral College. So it is too close to call with 63 days to go.
Paths to victory: Whoever wins Pennsylvania's 19 EC votes will likely win the presidency; it is the grand prize this cycle. Trump almost assuredly must capture the state to be re-elected; Harris has more alternate routes if her surge in Sun Belt states continues, but her best bet is sweeping the "Blue Wall" of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; getting two of three may not be enough.
Pivot point: The candidates are scheduled -- as of now, at least -- to debate a week from today on ABC in Philadelphia. Republican pollster Frank Luntz said the showdown "is everything" in the race. It may be the only debate between Harris and Trump.
Big picture: Harris' campaign insists she is "the clear underdog" in the race. Recent polls contradict that sentiment, though. The race is a toss-up. But you could argue Harris is a slight favorite given how battleground state polls are moving toward her.

2) Train slayings

Four people were killed on a Chicago transit train.

The news: Police said all four victims appeared to be sleeping when they were shot around 5:30 a.m. local time yesterday. Three died at the scene; a fourth died at a hospital. Officials said it was a "heinous and egregious act of violence," but appears to have been an isolated incident. The shootings happened in two separate cars; the victims may have been homeless.
Suspect caught: The shooting happened on the Chicago Transit Authority's Blue Line. Police used surveillance footage to apprehend the alleged gunman on the Pink Line about 90 minutes later. A firearm was also recovered.
Violent day: There was gun violence across the nation on Labor Day. Five people were shot at New York's West Indian American Day parade; two people were critically wounded. Six people were shot in several incidents surrounding a school reunion in Cleveland.

3) Repo men

Venezuela's strongman needs a new ride.

What happened: The U.S. seized an airplane belonging to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The aircraft was in the Dominican Republic when the Department of Justice took possession; it is now in Florida.
Key details: DOJ said Venezuela bought the $13M plane in Florida through a Caribbean-based shell company and smuggled it out of the country to evade sanctions on Venezuela. Flight records indicate the aircraft has flown to and from a Venezuelan military base almost exclusively and has been used by Maduro and his associates, including state visits to other nations.
Big picture: The U.S. continues to pressure Maduro following Venezuela's contested presidential election in late July. The dictator has claimed victory, but most of the international community has rejected those assertions. Voting data suggests opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez won, but Maduro has refused to step aside.

Quick Tips

U.S. News

A vandal caused significant damage to Buffalo’s City Hall building. A man was arrested and accused of breaking a dozen windows and a revolving door while also making threats; he caused at least 12K in damage (More)
Fourteen people have died at Grand Canyon National Park, one short of the annual average. The spike in fatalities is attributable in part to extreme heat and rainfall linked to climate change, officials said (More)
Federal civilian workers will get an average raise of 2% next year. All federal employees will get a 1.7% raise in 2025, plus local pay raises; the increase will still be short of current inflation rates (More)

World News

Two U.S. soldiers were attacked in Turkey. The servicemembers, who were in civilian clothing, are OK after other military personnel intervened; police detained 15 people connected to a Turkish nationalist youth group in the assault (More)
The United Kingdom has partially suspended arms sales to Israel. Under 10% of existing contracts are paused due to a "clear risk" the weapons may be used in violation of international humanitarian laws (More)
Myanmar's military government said it will conduct a census as it moves toward a general election next year. The move comes as pro-democracy militants and ethnic militias are on the offensive in the country's civil war; the survey will also be used to gather information on the nation’s demographics (More)

Campaign News

Vans traveling in Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's motorcade were involved in a multi-car freeway accident in Wisconsin. Reporters and staffers were in the impacted vehicles impacted with non-life-threatening injuries reported; the Democratic vice presidential candidate and his wife were not involved (More)
Ads suggesting the Philadelphia Eagles had endorsed Vice President Harris appeared in the city. The NFL team said the posters were "counterfeit" and would be removed; the ads did include the franchise's authentic voter registration website (More)
Two political dirty tricksters have reportedly started an artificial intelligence lobbying firm under pseudonyms. Conservative operatives Jack Burkman and Jacob Wohl were convicted of felony telecommunications fraud in 2022 and fined $5M by the Federal Communications Commission (More)

Business & Markets

Volkswagen said it may close manufacturing plants in Germany, its home country. The automaker said major cost-cutting measures may be needed to protect the company's future; it has ended a 30-year employment protection agreement and the situation is “extremely tense,” CEO Thomas Schafer said (More)
Hewlett Packard will pursue a $4B damages claim against late British tech tycoon Mike Lynch's family. Lynch and his daughter died in the recent luxury yacht wreck in Italy; a London civil court ruled against Lynch before his death to end a 13-year legal battle over HP's acquisition of his Autonomy group (More)
Vice President Harris said she opposes Nippon Steel's planned $15B takeover of U.S. Steel. President Joe Biden and former President Trump are also against the deal; the Japanese steelmaker has pledged to honor union contracts and maintain the company's name and Pittsburgh headquarters (More)

Entertainment & Sports

Joey Chestnut ate 83 hot dogs in 10 minutes to break his world record. The competitive eater squared off against rival Takeru Kobayashi for the first time in 15 on a Netflix special; Kobayashi ate 66, a personal best (More)
Ticketmaster's dynamic pricing will face a United Kingdom inquiry. The ticket broker is under fire after chaotic sales for Oasis' reunion shows next year; parent company Live Nation is also embroiled in a U.S. antitrust lawsuit (More)
Cristiano Ronaldo said he has no plans to retire from international competition despite a goalless European Championship tournament. The legendary soccer star is on Portugal's roster for upcoming Nations League matches (More)

Quick Hitters

Heart Warming: A dad interviewed his daughter every year on the first day of school. He just released the final video after she started her senior year of high school.
Stay Away: The fall foliage in Pomfret, Vermont, is stunning. But residents have had enough of the influencers it attracts.
Go Deep: Birds within the same species often have wildly different approaches to constructing nests. This suggests the process is rooted in culture as much as nature, with family groups learning over generations.
Be Safe: Some kitchen tools become food safety risks as they age. Here is a rundown of the items you should try to replace frequently.
Life Hack: Being in "survival mode" at work can be miserable. Here are five ways to reduce stress and stop feeling overwhelmed.

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