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Election Day 2024: Everything You Need To Know

Election Day 2024: Everything You Need To Know

Your unbiased daily news brief

James Kratch
November 05, 2024

Good Tuesday morning. It is Election Day in the United States. Ballots are pretty bland these days, but they used to double as works of art. Have a good day.

In Today’s Brief

Hurricane Rafael: Early forecast
Russia: Western escalation
Musk: Another legal win
Boeing: Strike vote
Quincy Jones: Dies at 91

... and more

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Top Tips

1) Time to choose

An unprecedented presidential race has finally reached the finish line.

Setting the stage: Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump enter Election Day in what appears to be a virtual dead heat. Most polls and projection models say this will be a coinflip race decided on the margins that could go in either direction.
Battleground states: All eyes are on Pennsylvania. The winner of the Keystone State will almost assuredly become president. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin are also critical. Harris could theoretically overcome a loss in Pennsylvania with an upset in one of the southeast states, but that would require holding off Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin and winning one of the southwest states. Trump would need to run the table in every other swing state if he loses Pennsylvania.
History at stake: Harris would be the first woman to be elected president and the first Asian American president. Trump would be the second president elected to non-consecutive terms, joining Grover Cleveland Alexander.
Be patient: It is unlikely the winner will be known tonight. Or even tomorrow. It could take days for all the votes to be counted. Remember: President Joe Biden was not declared the winner in 2020 until the Saturday after Election Day.

2) Down the ballot

At least one chamber of Congress should change hands.

In the House: Republicans have a 220-212 majority with three vacancies; whether they hold control or cede it to Democrats is too close to call. The non-partisan Cook Political Report currently projects 208 likely GOP seats, 205 likely Democratic seats and 22 toss-ups. The GOP is defending 12 of the toss-ups, the Democrats are defending eight and two are vacancies created by Democratic exits. Seven of the toss-ups are in swing states, including three in Pennsylvania.
In the Senate: The GOP is expected to take control of the chamber, which Democrats currently hold at 51-49. Republicans should flip at least two seats -- in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is trailing in polls, and in West Virginia, where Gov. Jim Justice will replace retiring independent Sen. Joe Manchin. They also have opportunities to gain extra seats in Arizona, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, although the GOP candidate is the underdog in those races. Democrats do have some long-shot gain opportunities, such as Texas. The potential chaos scenario: Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer, a Republican, is upset by independent candidate Dan Osborn, who has said he will not caucus with either party. That would give the GOP a 50-49-1 majority and make the party affiliation of the next Vice President, who casts tiebreaking votes in the chamber, of utmost importance.
At the statehouse: There are 11 gubernatorial elections. Only two are receiving significant national attention. Former New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, is considered a slight favorite to replace outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu, also a member of the GOP. And North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, a Democrat, will replace term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper, also a Democrat. But the question is whether a lopsided win over Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the scandal-plagued GOP candidate, could threaten Trump's chances to win the swing state.

3) Other important votes

There are numerous key ballot questions at stake.

Reproductive rights: Ten states will ask voters to weigh in on how their state regulates abortion or handles abortion-related issues, including swing states Arizona and Nevada and Nebraska, where Harris is battling to take an electoral vote from the state's Omaha-anchored congressional district. Almost all of the initiatives would enshrine abortion rights if approved; most seek to protect access until fetal viability, which is generally considered around 24 weeks. Abortion has proven to energize Democratic voters ever since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
In Puerto Rico: The U.S. territory could make history after becoming an unexpected flashpoint in the presidential race. Juan Dalmau, who supports independence, could win Puerto Rico's gubernatorial election and end the pro-statehood New Progressive Party's almost eight decades in power. Dalmau is an underdog but only needs a plurality in the multi-candidate race to win. Polls have tightened since comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's controversial joke about Puerto Rico at Trump's Madison Square Garden. There will also be a nonbinding referendum about the territory's future that does not include the status quo as an option.
Other matters: Several states will vote on legalizing marijuana and certain psychedelics; Florida's weed vote is the most prominent nationally. Minimum wage will also be on the ballot in some states, as well as non-citizen voting bans and crime sentencing proposals.

Quick Tips

U.S. News

Meteorologists believe another hurricane could head toward the U.S. Current forecasts project Tropical Storm Rafael will form in the Caribbean in the coming days before strengthening; early predictions suggest it may make landfall in Louisiana (More)
The state of California is suing a Los Angeles suburb city over its homeless shelter moratorium. Gov. Gavin Newsom alleges Norwalk is violating several laws with the order; he previously revoked related state funding to the city (More)
The cremated remains of about 30 Civil War veterans were recently laid to rest. The urns were stored in Washington state for decades; historical researchers determined all the men fought for the Union and were deserving of military funerals (More)

World News

Russia is accused of plotting to sabotage cargo and passenger flights headed to the U.S. and Canada. The Wall Street Journal reported two incendiary devices, believed to be a test run, ignited at shipping hubs in England and Germany; Western security officials have made several arrests in Europe (More)
Several dozen Tamil refugees will be allowed to enter the United Kingdom after spending three years on Diego Garcia. They have been stranded on the remote Indian Ocean island, which houses a military base controlled by the U.S. and UK, after fleeing Sri Lanka (More)
Armenia's ambassador to Belgium and the European Union has accused his Azerbaijani counterpart of threatening his life. The incident allegedly occurred during an event sponsored by Turkey in Brussels; Azerbaijan has denied the claim by its bitter rival (More)

Campaign News

A Pennsylvania judge said Elon Musk's super PAC can continue its $1M daily giveaway in battleground states through today. Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner filed a lawsuit alleging the Tesla CEO's group is operating an illegal lottery; an attorney for America PAC claimed the winners are paid spokespeople and not chosen by chance (More)
The Supreme Court agreed to hear a dispute regarding Louisiana's congressional map. A lower court ruled redistricting resulted in an unconstitutional racial gerrymander with two majority-Black districts; the map will be used for today's elections with the high court’s decision expected next year (More)
New security fencing was installed at the White House and the Naval Observatory, where Vice President Harris resides. Officials said it was a routine measure ahead of the election and was not prompted by a specific threat (More)

Business & Markets

Major indexes closed lower yesterday on the eve of the election. The Dow Jones dropped over 250 points (Dow -0.61%, Nasdaq -0.33%, S&P 500 -0.28%).
Boeing machinists voted on the aerospace giant's improved contract offer, potentially ending an almost two-month strike. The work stoppage has shut down jet production and sidelined about 33K workers (More)
Dollar Tree CEO Rick Dreiling has resigned, effective immediately. He cited health issues for his exit; Family Dollar, which the company owns, paid a $42M fine for using a rat-infested warehouse earlier this year (More)

Entertainment & Sports

Quincy Jones died at 91. The music industry titan had a 70-year career as a composer, producer and songwriter; he won 28 Grammy Awards and Primetime Emmy and Tony awards and was a seven-time Academy Award nominee (More)
The first set of College Football Playoff rankings will be released tonight. Oregon is expected to be No. 1 withGeorgia and Ohio State vying for No. 2; this is the first season for the CFP's 12-team national title tournament format (More)
At least one Game of Thrones film is reportedly in the early development stages at Warner Bros. There is no cast, filmmaker or writer attached to the project; HBO has previously signaled it wanted the popular fantasy franchise to remain exclusive to television (More)

Quick Hitters

Feel Good: A Michigan woman left a sign outside her house on Halloween alerting visitors she did not have candy since her son was in the hospital. So local kids started leaving some of theirs for him.
Take Note: Everyone hates it when an otherwise good block of cheese grows some mold. Is it true that you can just cut off the affected area and keep eating? Yes and no.
Go Deep: Triplet births in the U.S. have reached a 25-year low. Researchers believe fertility treatments may be the reason why.
New Idea: Scientists in Denmark believe they have invented exercise in pill form. Their new drug, LaKe, apparently can send the body" "into a metabolic state corresponding to running 10km at high speed on an empty stomach."
Life Hack: No one likes to argue, especially when a meaningful conversation needs to happen. Here is a simple phrase that can halt conflict in its tracks.

Watch This

A 269-269 tie in the Electoral College is unlikely. But here is a look at what would happen if it does occur.